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Walthers buys Life-Like

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fshobby@prodigy.net - 15 Jul 2005 17:53 GMT
>From Model Railroader:

http://list.trains.com/UM/T.asp?A15.94.524.1.101390

Now, the question is will they pull out of other distributors?

Peter King in NY
Lt. Kizhe Catson - 15 Jul 2005 19:55 GMT
>>From Model Railroader:
>
> http://list.trains.com/UM/T.asp?A15.94.524.1.101390
>
> Now, the question is will they pull out of other distributors?

And how does it affect LL Canada? (Which seems to be a somewhat-separate
entity, though I'm unclear on the exact connection). In N-scale, LL is
an important source for Canadian RRs.

-- Kizhe
Wolf Kirchmeir - 15 Jul 2005 21:54 GMT
>>> From Model Railroader:
>>
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>
> -- Kizhe

Hobbycraft has exclusive rights to the LifeLike brand in Canada, which
means that it's the exclusive importer of LifeLike products into Canada,
both US and Canadian prototype. It also contracts for production of
models of Canadian protoypes under the LifeLike brand. BTW, the
importing is direct, not via the US. The pricing of Canadian roadnames
reflects the small production runs, which are now usually 88 or 144 of
each roadnumber, and often less. Eg, only 50 sets of the CN newsprint
cars with graffiti were made. They were sold out at Hobbycraft almost as
soon as they arrived.

HTH
Froggy @ thepond..com - 15 Jul 2005 22:47 GMT
>>From Model Railroader:
>
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
>Peter King in NY

According to what I hear, that will happen on 15 August.
Froggy,
fshobby@prodigy.net - 18 Jul 2005 12:52 GMT
Well, according to what I've subsequently heard, Froggy is right.
August 15th is the date.

Some more thoughts on this:

Similarity to the Athearn/Horizon deal: Well, it is a major distributor
buying out a major manufacturer. But Walthers is already the biggest
model RR distributor, while Horizon was a minor player. (Yes, I know
they are bigger overall than Walthers. But they still only distribute a
relatively small number of RR lines. Prior to Athearn/MDC, there was no
real reason for a trains-only shop to buy from Horizon.)

The immediate effect will be much smaller, since most shops carrying
trains will already have a Walthers account. You won't have a number of
shops dropping the line or getting shut out, as happened with
Athearn/MDC.

Wholesale price: Who's the low-cost distributor of Life-Like? Surprise,
surprise, it's Walthers. (At least for 5-star dealers.) I don't expect
this to change.

Retail price: Some of the larger dealers are able to buy Life-Like at
distributor prices. This will probably stop. In the short term, expect
some really low prices, as distributors dump Life-Like. In the long
term, most of the really deep discount LL prices will probably go away.
Expect street price to settle around 20% to 30% off list.

Availability: This should help availability on regular production-run
items some, since inventory levels will be easier to control. But on
limited-run items, your dealer will only have one place to go, and once
they're gone, that's it.

Who's next: Who knows? But not Bachmann. I doubt anyone in the business
has the money to buy them. Atlas is a good bet if someone has the
money, and rumor has it Woodland Scenics. Bowser seems unlikely, the
current management seems interested in running the business. Kato seems
really unlikely, but Intermountain seems like a good candidate, too.

Peter King in NY
Mark Mathu - 18 Jul 2005 14:39 GMT
> Who's next: Who knows?

They're not that big of a player in the model railroad market, but the owner
of Con-Cor is planning to retire in about two years.  So he would probably be
very willing to sell.
http://www.all-railroads.com/
fshobby@prodigy.net - 18 Jul 2005 18:16 GMT
I think Con-Cor and IHC are in the same situation. Both have long-time
owners who must be close to retirement. Both pretty much rely on others
for development and manufacturing. And both produce a lot of
non-prototype stuff that's maginal to poor. The question is will they
simply dry up and blow away before they're purchased?

Con-Cor does have some desirable stuff, but their vehicles are already
shared with Herpa and Promotex. Promotex could fill the void if Con-Cor
exits. Their buildings have been swapped around between various
manufacturers for years. I can't imagine anyone would want their
engines or cars. (Except the Goose, maybe.)

I agree they probably will be for sale eventually. Sthe hard part will
be finding a buyer.

Peter King in NY
Mark Mathu - 20 Jul 2005 08:00 GMT
> Con-Cor does have some desirable stuff, but their vehicles are already
> shared with Herpa and Promotex. Promotex could fill the void if Con-Cor
> exits. Their buildings have been swapped around between various
> manufacturers for years. I can't imagine anyone would want their
> engines or cars. (Except the Goose, maybe.)

It's the 60' auto parts boxcar that I care about!
fshobby@prodigy.net - 20 Jul 2005 13:32 GMT
>It's the 60' auto parts boxcar that I care about!

Almost forgot about that one!

Fathered by Bondo Billy, and one of the first limited-run plastic
models. I missed buying a NYC version when they debuted. When I
inquired further, I was astounded to hear that it probably wouldn't be
run again in that road.

Peter King in NY
mark_newton - 21 Jul 2005 03:58 GMT
> Con-Cor does have some desirable stuff, but their vehicles are
> already shared with Herpa and Promotex. Promotex could fill the void
> if Con-Cor exits. Their buildings have been swapped around between
> various manufacturers for years. I can't imagine anyone would want
> their engines or cars.

Their 40' Airslide hoppers can form the basis of a good model, with some
extra work. I feel they are superior to the Walther's model of the same car.
JB/NL - 18 Jul 2005 17:10 GMT
fshobby@prodigy.net wrote in news:1121687568.736287.307400
@o13g2000cwo.googlegroups.com:

> Kato seems really unlikely

Kato has its own problems - in its home market (Japan) it's being
relegated to doing 'me-too' releases, following on the announcements
of the other manufacturers ... maybe they would do better to concentrate
on the US market :)

Signature

JB/NL <tsunami@xs4all.nl>
If anyone asks me what I am, I will say I am myself.
If I am forced to choose what to be, I will choose nothing.

Alan Dye - 19 Jul 2005 16:45 GMT
Good analysis,

I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on product.  Specifically, I've
always liked the look of the P2K line, but find them a bit fragile for
frequent handling and mechanically they're the worst of the lot in my
humble opinion.  Split gears, groggy slow ramping motors, etc...  Far
poorer than Kato, Atlas, or Athearn/Genesis.

Walthers trainline models aren't much to look at, but generally the few
I own run pretty smoothly.  The press seems to indicate it will mostly
be run as an independent subsidiary, but do you suppose the quality will
improve?  I only ever bought the P1K line (not too detailed, but easily
handled and solid performers), or P2K's when they were heavily
discounted because I may have wanted the specific model of locomotive,
but didn't feel like the price reflected the quality/value of the
locomotive.

Thoughts?

Alan

> Well, according to what I've subsequently heard, Froggy is right.
> August 15th is the date.
[quoted text clipped - 35 lines]
>
> Peter King in NY
Mark Mathu - 20 Jul 2005 07:38 GMT
> The press seems to indicate it will mostly be run as an independent
> subsidiary, but do you suppose the quality will improve?

That has been the general trend in the hobby over the past twenty years, and
I can't see why things won't continue in the future -- especially because
this seems to be Walthers' flagship line to compete against Horizon Hobby's
Athearn/Genesis locomotives.  So improvements by one manufacturer will most
likely be reflected by the other to stay in the market.
fshobby@prodigy.net - 20 Jul 2005 13:29 GMT
>The press seems to indicate it will mostly
>be run as an independent subsidiary, but do you suppose the quality will
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>but didn't feel like the price reflected the quality/value of the
>locomotive.

That's a good question, and I'm not sure there's a way to know. I CAN
see Trainline/P1K either merging, or being made compatible. If Walthers
does "merge" lines, I would expect the Life-Like design to be
dominant.

On the other hand, I also think Walthers is more responsive to quality
problems.

Time will tell.

Peter King in NY
Roger T. - 20 Jul 2005 16:36 GMT
<fshobby@prodigy.net>

> On the other hand, I also think Walthers is more responsive to quality
> problems.

Oh?  When are they going to refund my money or give me credit for that piece
of crap turntable I bought from them about five years ago?

--
Cheers
Roger T.

Home of the Great Eastern Railway
http://www.highspeedplus.com/~rogertra/
Mark Mathu - 16 Jul 2005 08:17 GMT
> Now, the question is will they pull out of other distributors?

Who are the other big distributors of Life-Like?
Chuck Kimbrough - 16 Jul 2005 12:27 GMT
Name any of the big distributors; Horizon, Great Planes, Hobby Stores,
etc.

> > Now, the question is will they pull out of other distributors?
>
> Who are the other big distributors of Life-Like?
Jon Miller - 16 Jul 2005 16:26 GMT
   Well if Horizon won't sell Athearn to Walthers you can bet Walthers
won't sell LL to Horizon.
fl@liner - 17 Jul 2005 14:16 GMT
>    Well if Horizon won't sell Athearn to Walthers you can bet Walthers
>won't sell LL to Horizon.

And we all know who are going to be the losers in THAT pissing match!

fl@liner
Froggy @ thepond..com - 17 Jul 2005 15:52 GMT
>>    Well if Horizon won't sell Athearn to Walthers you can bet Walthers
>>won't sell LL to Horizon.
>>
>And we all know who are going to be the losers in THAT pissing match!
>
>fl@liner

No, I don't think we all do.  Why don't you tell us?
Froggy,
Edward A. Oates - 17 Jul 2005 18:12 GMT
Us, the consumers. Fewer choices.When a manufacturer is its own distributor
to retail outlets, there are fewer reasons to discount the wholesale price.
And when the manufacturer is also its own retailer (at least in part), it
has the option of undercutting the other retailers (not so bad for us, bad
for mom-and-pop), or undersupplying the retailers (bad for us). In either
case, if the local or internet retailers are forced out of business, or at
least into not carrying the manufacturers product lines, we consumers are
left with a single supplier who can sell for whatever they wish.

So far, neither Horizon nor Walters has shown a particular propensity to
become deep discounters. I can still get products more cheaply from internet
trains, discount trains (online), or from The Train Shop (in Santa Clara,
CA) at better prices than directly from H or W.

Ed

>>>    Well if Horizon won't sell Athearn to Walthers you can bet Walthers
>>> won't sell LL to Horizon.
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> No, I don't think we all do.  Why don't you tell us?
> Froggy,

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Froggy @ thepond..com - 17 Jul 2005 21:07 GMT
>Us, the consumers.

This is true, but it really doesn't answer Fl@tliners statement.
Not that I can see anyway.  Sounded to me like he is implying that either Walthers or
Horizon is going to be the loser.

>In article <11di9tcib0lfve2@corp.supernews.com>, atsf@inow.com says...
>>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
>fl@liner

Now, I don't necessarily think that the consumer will be a loser, except that we
might have to pay higher prices for our toys. Maybe, maybe not.  Little guys can't
compete with each other in the market place by using price. They don't have enough
margin.   Witness that no brass importer has ever got into a price war with another
importer at equal levels of quality.  Yeah, you could get brass for less, but it was
also a good deal less brass too; meaning lower quality, less detailing etc.  It was
the same in the plastic market too.
Now we have two "big boys" running their respective shows who DO have the capability
of offering top-notch product AND of competing with each other.  Add to that Bowser
and Atlas, who have both shown that they are capable of playing well in that field,
and the consumer actually has a greater opportunity (statistically anyway) to get
what he wants; more so now than back in the day when Athearn was the
"Cock-o-the-walk", and you ran Athearn or you didn't run.  This competition at this
higher level may mean that we will have greater opportunity to get engines and cars
that previously could only be had at the whim of a brass importer and at outrageous
prices.

Now, let's take a moment to look at prices.
Back in the day, when an Athearn locomotive cost US$10, that represented a day's
wages for me.  Today, I can get a better model for a lot less than a day's wages.
Oh sure, I'd like to be able to buy my toys for $10, but in order to do that I'd have
to go back to making $10 - 12 a day. I'll pass on that offer.
So then, in the end, things don't really change all that much, and they aren't so bad
as we try to make them seem sometimes.
Do you want to pay a bit more for what you want, or not have any opportunity at all
to get what you want?

How "bout it?

Froggy,
Edward A. Oates - 17 Jul 2005 21:18 GMT
I'm not in particular disagreement with you, Froggy. Inflation adjusted,
prices are better than ever for mass market stuff; and the semi-mass market
stuff (genesys, Proto2K, etc.) are better products than you could even buy
20 years ago without going brass (which doesn't usually run all that well,
anyway!).

My point is than when manufacturers become their own distributors, it is
possible that by cutting out the middleman for the retailer (online or
local), prices might go down and all the retailers will buy at the same
wholesale price; it it is equally likely that the manufacturers may decide
that they want that end use price for themselves rather than just the
wholesale price, and cut off retailers, or charge them higher wholesale
prices. Time will tell.

All that said, I despise the distributor model almost everywhere. Walmart
(in part) gets to charge lower prices by being their own wholesaler and
buying directly from manufacturers, and using their volume buying to force
discounts; they then run their own just-in-time distribution scheme.

For hobby shops, that middle-man-less scheme doesn't work because it is too
costly for manufacturers, so they just sell to a few distributors who then
deal with smaller retailers. With us down to one distributor (Horizon or
Walther at it may be) for each manufacturer, the system is ripe for gaming
if so desired.

We'll see. Fortunately, none of this stuff is essential goods like
electricity. But if the lower end pricing goes up, it may keep newcomers
from entering the hobby. I'm already well stocked, so I'm not rushing out to
be 50 new boxcars.

Ed

>> Us, the consumers.
>
[quoted text clipped - 60 lines]
>
> Froggy,

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Wolf Kirchmeir - 17 Jul 2005 22:42 GMT
Froggy @ the pond..com wrote:
[...] we will have greater opportunity to get engines and cars
> that previously could only be had at the whim of a brass importer

Most models were offered after some careful polling of potential
customers, and a  pretty firm market for at about 80% or so of the
projected production run. That's still the case. A brass importer wants
to have presold a fair number of models before they'll commit to making
them, and many production runs these days are on the order of a hundred
or so units, sometimes considerably fewer. This is really a form of
custom building.

> and at outrageous
> prices.

If you think brass was (and is?) offered at "outrageous prices", you're
forgetting the economics of mostly hand-built production in small
batches. The alternative would mean tooling for a plastic kit, and the
mfr would have to sell around 100,000 units to recoup his investment.
IOW, he'd have to produce a model for which there was strong demand, and
produce it year after year. Which is exactly what Irv Athearn did, and
why he didn't bring out a new model every six months. (He made a few
mistakes, though: do you recall the Pacific, offered with rubber band
drive? Gear drive would have meant additional tooling, which would have
raised the cost. IMO, Irv goofed: we were _ready_ for a good quality
plastic + die cast kit with a reliable Athearn drive.)

The economics of brass locos (each model affordable by a few hundred or
so modellers) worked as long as wages in Japan were low, then when those
rose to comfortable levels, production was moved to Korea. Now that
CAD/CAM has made tool and die making much, much cheaper, it's economical
to produce relatively small runs of plastic locos, on the order of ten
thousand or less. But note: As China corners the market on these
products, its potential competitors in Europe and America are going
bankrupt. This means that the machine tools and more importantly the
skills to use them are being lost. As Chinese wages start to rise,
you'll see the prices of plastic rise, too. Oops, don't look now, but
that's already happening.

> Now, let's take a moment to look at prices.
> Back in the day, when an Athearn locomotive cost US$10, that represented a day's
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>
> Froggy,

Agreed, it's a point I've made many times. In real money (the money I
earn, not the money the economists gabble about with their understated
inflation rates), our toys are cheaper than they were when I bought my
first brass loco (2nd hand, and I still have it.) When you consider the
improvement in quality, even of train-set quality rolling stock, they
are a real bargain.

BTW, brass has turned out to be a bad investment, selling for maybe 2 to
5 times its original price, whereas it should be selling 10 to 15 times
that price just to maintain its value (keep pace with inflation.)
fl@liner - 18 Jul 2005 23:46 GMT
>>Us, the consumers.
>
>This is true, but it really doesn't answer Fl@tliners statement.
>Not that I can see anyway.  Sounded to me like he is implying that either Walthers or
>Horizon is going to be the loser.

Not at all.  The implication being that the hobbyist and the LHS are going to
feel the brunt in availability and lack of discounting in the short term.  
Over the long haul, the whole hobby will probably suffer when the biggies
price me and others out of the hobby.
Of course, all of this could drive the hobby into an exclusively"cottage
industry" where everything you get for the layout has to be ordered from the
manufacturer.  Just think of all the more time we can use as an excuse for not
working on the layout!

fl@liner
Rick Jones - 19 Jul 2005 00:52 GMT
> Not at all.  The implication being that the hobbyist and the LHS are going to
> feel the brunt in availability and lack of discounting in the short term.  
> Over the long haul, the whole hobby will probably suffer when the biggies
> price me and others out of the hobby.

   So we all go back to this hobby's roots - scratchbuilding what we
want/need. Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness.

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The Lake Erie & Oregon Railroad
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Troi, when the clothes fell.

fl@liner - 19 Jul 2005 01:12 GMT
>> Not at all.  The implication being that the hobbyist and the LHS are going to
>> feel the brunt in availability and lack of discounting in the short term.  
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>    So we all go back to this hobby's roots - scratchbuilding what we
>want/need. Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness.

Rick,
I don't know about you, but I can do a credible job on a plastic kit, but
wood? ... disaster!  
I'm not asking for stone knives but I don't want to shop for a loco or boxcar
like I have to do for my next new car.

If I'm given the choice of kit/rtr, I'll always go with the kit.  It saves me
a couple of bucks, and I get the pride of a job well-done (however small that
may be).

fl@liner
Rick Jones - 20 Jul 2005 01:23 GMT
> If I'm given the choice of kit/rtr, I'll always go with the kit.  It saves me
> a couple of bucks, and I get the pride of a job well-done (however small that
> may be).

   Same here. The RTR stuff is mostly overpriced and putting together a
Le Belle, Ambroid, Silver Streak or Central Valley boxcar or reefer kit
gives me a LOT more satisfaction and sense of accomplishment.

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The Lake Erie & Oregon Railroad
http://www.geocities.com/seventysixinchesoffun/

"I stayed up all night playing poker with a deck of tarot cards.
I got a full house and four people died." -Stephen Wright

Mark Mathu - 19 Jul 2005 02:53 GMT
> Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness.

That is bullshit.
mike - 19 Jul 2005 06:34 GMT
Well it is starting.  Bowser just sent an email to their dealers stating
that they will no longer be carrying Life Like products.  Canceled all
orders for new releases.

>> Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness.
>
> That is bullshit.
Edward A. Oates - 19 Jul 2005 16:50 GMT
RTR is a convenience for some, especially beginning modelers.Calling them BS
sort of begs the question: when is buying a model rail road product which is
even partially assembled not "laziness?" I notice that Athearn blue box kits
come pre-painted and decaled. Is that laziness, or should I start with flat
styrene and cut, carve, etc. to get the thing I want?

This hobby, like most, is about choices. Some really want to scratch build
everything and have the skills and experience to do that. Other want to do
scenery, lay track, design layouts, etc., and could care less about actually
building rolling stock, so they by some pre-built. Other want to do
operations, and if someone delivered a layout to their specifications with
rolling stock and loco's all in place, they'd be happy as clams (whatever
that means).

>> Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness.
>
> That is bullshit.

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Ernie Fisch - 19 Jul 2005 22:18 GMT
On Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:50:48 UTC, "Edward A. Oates"
<nowayedward.oates@unearthlylink.net> wrote: 2000

> This hobby, like most, is about choices. Some really want to scratch build
> everything and have the skills and experience to do that. Other want to do
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> rolling stock and loco's all in place, they'd be happy as clams (whatever
> that means).

I think you nailed it.  Different courses for horses.

My preference is for design, trackwork and operation.  I have no
problem building kits but would rather not do it.  Except for my last
two module sets my track has all been handlaid with hand built
turnouts.  The first module set was handlaid with Railway Engineering
turnouts and the second set was done with flextrack and Micro
Engineering turnouts.  I am going back to handlaid track with hand
built turnouts (Okay I am going to cheat and use Fast Track jigs)
because I enjoy it.

Signature

ernie fisch

Mark Mathu - 20 Jul 2005 07:53 GMT
> I think you nailed it.  Different courses for horses.
>
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> built turnouts (Okay I am going to cheat and use Fast Track jigs)
> because I enjoy it.

Absolutely!

Rick's comment is the equivalent of saying: "Buying pre-fab turnouts is just
an excuse for laziness," or "not operating with prototypical paperwork is
just an excuse for laziness," or "not finishing your layout room is just an
excuse for laziness."

This hobby is varied enough that everyone can concentrate on the parts of the
hobby they enjoy -- and gloss over the parts they don't enjoy.  Rick's
comment is an embarrassment to those who truly love this hobby and all the
variety it can offer.
Bruce Favinger - 21 Jul 2005 06:22 GMT
hobby's roots - scratchbuilding what we
> want/need. Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness

Rick,
   While I like to scratchbuild or put together craftsman type kits I don't
see a thing wrong with RTR models especially with some of the outstanding
models that are available. Not everyone in this world is a craftsman or
wants to be a craftsman, nor should they. If we were all expert wood workers
and carpenters who would make our bread.
   It quite obvious that RTR is very popular and I think always has been.
The market for RTR has always been there. It finally being catered too after
all these years.  A number of my friends had layouts or I should say their
fathers did. Most were 4x8's populated with RTR and simple kit stuff. As far
as I can remember my dad was the only person I knew that had some Bowsers
with extra detail. Everyone else had RTR Warbonnet F's or AHM stuff or
Lionel or American Flyer. Most structures were the same simple ones everyone
else had. Scenery and structures were rather sparse anyway.
   I'll bet a great number of those old kit locomotives, craftsman type car
models and such were bought but never built or only half way put together
and then abandoned to dusty oblivion. The ones that escaped house cleaning
seem to emerge on Ebay with regularity and I would not be surprised if many
of those will remain unbuilt. If more models were scratchbuilt or kit built
in the old days its probably because of no choice rather than that people
were less lazy back then. Probably the relative number of scratchbuilders
was small then too but they were extensively featured in the magazines (
mostly because there wasn't anything else to feature) so it just seemed like
everyone did it. Bruce

.
Rick Jones - 22 Jul 2005 00:35 GMT
> hobby's roots - scratchbuilding what we
>>want/need. Buying RTR is just an excuse for laziness
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> wants to be a craftsman, nor should they. If we were all expert wood workers
> and carpenters who would make our bread.

   Perhaps my words were rather strong. I have a few P2K RTR tank cars
and stock cars myself, and I have purchased a fair number of built-up
craftsman models at swaps or auctions over the years. I prefer the
really nice, though hard to find these days, craft kits like Silver
Streak and Central Valley, et all used to make but I buy other things
too, especially if the prototype was metal which a wood kits rarely
simulates well.
   My response was a quick reaction to the whining that was expressed
over the Walthers/Life-Like merger. It followed on to all of the whining
that was posted over the Horizon mergers and the prognostications about
how the hobby was "going to be ruined" and prices were going to
skyrocket. Add in the annoying whining that goes on here nearly every
month when MR comes out and it gets *so-o-o-o-o* *o-o-o-o-ld* very fast.
The eternal flame wars between certain parties degrade the experience of
RMR even further.
   So take my previous comment with a few grains of salt and lots of
Cajun seasoning.  ;-{)

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The Lake Erie & Oregon Railroad
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I can see clearly now, the brain is gone...

 
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