Model Forum / General / Rockets / September 2003

Someone emailed this to me today.  Sorry it is so long.

David S. Chen

FYI...
      China could be the third nation capable of independently rocketing
humans into Earth orbit as soon as on its Naitonal Day, October 1.

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Shenzhou Secrets: China Prepares for First Human Spaceflight

By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer, SPACE.com

After four unmanned trial flights, China's first-ever piloted spacecraft,
the Shenzhou 5 is set to soar.  When it does, and if triumphant,
China will be propelled into an exclusive country club status: The
third nation capable of independently rocketing humans into Earth orbit.

Although tight-lipped on a range of technical details, Chinese space
officials have hinted at a multi-pronged human spaceflight program,
including space station construction, as well as eventual travel to
the Moon, all by 2020.

China's first piloted space journey could occur as early as next
month. And as NASA (news - web sites) comes to grips with a
grounded space shuttle fleet, the Red Dragon is on the rise.

Historic flight

Last week the Xinhua News Agency reported that Xu Guanhua,
China's Science and Technology Minister, has stated that
preparations for the historic flight were going smoothly, although
no specific date for the takeoff was identified.

Rumor has it that the piloted Shenzhou 5 could be airborne as
early as October 1, Chinese National Day -- the founding of the
communist state. Others speculate -- including foreign intelligence
analysts -- that mid-October appears to be the liftoff time frame.
Several factors will dictate the launch date insist Chinese space
planners, such as weather, solar activities and space radiation
levels around Earth.

Even the issue of threatening space debris is being addressed.

Last month, Chinese media outlets reported that Shenzhou 5
would be outfitted with an alarm system to avoid collisions
between the craft and chunks of speeding space flotsam.

Mention of the Shenzhou alarm system came during a second
national space debris workshop held in Shanghai. Du Heng,
chief scientist at the Center for Space Science and Applied
Research under the Chinese Academy of Sciences said the
hardware allows the spacecraft to automatically dodge space litter.

Single-seat Shenzhou

Whenever Shenzhou 5 roars into space it will be perched atop a
Long March 2F booster, departing from China's expansive Jiuquan
Space Launch Center in northwestern Gansu Province. Touchdown
of the craft is expected to be on Inner Mongolian grassland.

From late 1999 into early 2003, four shakeout flights of the
Shenzhou spaceship have taken place.

The Shenzhou 5 features 3 modules, from front to end:  An orbital
module holding science equipment; the crew-carrying ascent/decent
module; and a service module with attached solar panels, loaded
with electronics gear and rocket engines.

While the crew compartment can hold as many as three passengers,
Shenzhou 5 is seemingly destined to be operated by a lone pilot.
Only one person will be aboard the upcoming mission, according to
Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong-based web site.

The overall, multi-element national program for lofting its first pilot
into space was given the go-ahead by the Chinese government in
1992, and is tagged Project 921.

Drawing upon the country's top jet fighter pilots, an initial group of
14 yuhang yuans, or astronauts, have been in training. They are
reportedly all under 30 years of age, each with a flying time of over
1,000 hours. Of this cadre of carefully picked individuals, two of
them are apparently trainers for the other astronaut candidates.

Pilot's mission: go up, survivecome down alive

British space sleuth, Phillip Clark, a leading authority on both
China and Russia space progress, told SPACE.com that, at
present, there is now a pool of just five people. One of those
five will be the preferred candidate that slips into the
Shenzhou 5 seat.

Clark said that China's space officials are likely to announce
who will fly into space days before the launch.

"My guess is that they will also announce approximately
how long the flight is going to last.  They may also broadcast
the launch live, breaking into whatever Chinese soap opera
might be showing that day," Clark said.

There are still lots of unknowns about the impending flight,
Clark said, "but I'm surprised how open the Chinese have been."

Based on reports by Chinese media outlets, Clark said that
both the launch and landing of Shenzhou 5 will take place
during daylight. Flight time for Shenzhou 5 is considered to
be less than 24 hours.

Clark anticipates that the Shenzhou 5 flight will be "nice and
simple." While zipping around the Earth, the spaceship will
demonstrate its "significant" maneuvering capability, he said.

Over the last few months, Clark said, much of China's space
muscle has been solely concentrating on readying the launch
vehicle and the spacecraft.

"They want to make sure everything works properly," Clark said.
"I think the pilot's mission is basically go up there, surviveand
come down alive."

Human-rated rocket

Earlier this year, in a wide-ranging discussion with the People's
Daily, some details were offered as to how the Shenzhou booster
was human-rated.

Huang Chunping, deputy chief commander of the Jiuquan Space
Launch Center was also identified as commander-in-chief of the
specially outfitted booster that will lift Chinese space pilots into
orbit, tagged the "Shenjian"-Long March 2F rocket.

Huang said that there is enormous pressure to assure the
readiness of a piloted Shenzhou vehicle. He noted that both
Russia and the United States carried out a dozen or so test
shots prior to sending their first astronauts into space. In
contrast, China is moving into manned flight after only four
unpiloted missions, he said.

The Shenjian-Long March 2F booster features a range of safety
systems. An automatic fault-detection and escape system is
tied to 310 kinds of failure modes, Huang said. In designing one
element of the escape system, a Russian design approach was
once considered. "But they set the price at $10 million. Finally we
solved the problem on our own," he added.

More than 3,000 factories and tens of thousands of scientists,
technicians and managers are engaged in shaping China's
manned space project, Huang said in the People's Daily interview.

Chinese copycats

Are Chinese engineers just copycats, blueprinting the Shenzhou
after the Russian Soyuz spacecraft design?

Spaceships are spaceships, said Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of
the Naval War Colleges National Security Decision Making
Department in Newport, Rhode Island.

Everyone is interested in how much of the Shenzhou is Russian
and how much Chinese, Johnson-Freese said. If one country builds
a 737 airplane and the other builds an Airbus, are they similar or
different? How different would skeptics like a Chinese rocket to be
before it would qualify to be "their own," she pointed out.

"Rocketry is rocketry, I'm told. And once the basic principles are
understood, successfully launching a rocket means being attentive
to literally thousands of details and understanding the details. More
rocket accidents are found to be caused from inattention to detail
than faulty design." Johnson-Freese said.

Yes, the Shenzhou is very similar to Soyuz, Johnson-Freese said.
"Is that wisely learning from others rather than reinventing the wheel,
or does it indicate a lack of ability or inferiority? Depends on what
you are looking to prove. If the latter, then I would suppose that
concerns about Chinese military benefits from their manned space
program are lessened," she concluded.

Safer than Soyuz

It's clear that the Shenzhou booster has gotten a technology
makeover, said British space analyst, Clark.

"The Long March 2F has improved guidance and control equipment.
They've upgraded the engines and have new computer systems
onboard. Plus, of course, there's thelaunch escape system," Clark said.

Clark said that the Chinese have taken a different
path in designing Shenzhou's escape system - a better approach
than that adopted for Russia's Soyuz vehicle.

Thanks to an extra set of motors mounted on the booster's shroud,
escape of a Shenzhou craft from a failing Long March can be done
at a very high altitude.

"So in that sense, I think Shenzhou is even safer than Russia's
Soyuz," Clark said.

Another design difference from Soyuz is Shenzhou's orbital module.

Once the Shenzhou 5 flight draws to a close, its forward module
will be released, as has been the case in the last three of
Shenzhou's four test trips.  Packed with experiments, and
powered by its own solar panels, the orbital module is likely to
stay spinning around the Earth for six months. While floating
through space, the Shenzhou segment can be maneuvered by
ground controllers.

What next?

Once the passenger-carrying Shenzhou 5 descent module touches
down, what next for China's budding human space program?

"The Chinese program always progresses at a scale that makes a
snail look supersonic," Clark explained. He expects a follow-on
piloted mission in the summer of next year. Perhaps a larger crew
would make that trip.

What follows in the near future is a possible docking between two
Shenzhou vehicles. In fact, Clark said he expects the soon-to-fly
Shenzhou 5 to be outfitted with a test set of docking hardware.

"Don't expect anything exciting and innovative with this mission.
And certainly don't expect the Chinese to suddenly start flying
crews every few months," Clark said.

Clark predicted that, for the foreseeable future, a maximum of two
Chinese manned launches would fly in any 12-month period.

"They've got to build up a lot of their own experienceand that's
going to take time for them to do," Clark advised.

International partnerships

Even before Shenzhou 5 flies, China's ever-growing technological
aptitude has already spawned a number of deals with other
spacefaring nations.

For instance, China and the European Union (news - web sites)
reached an agreement on September 18, a deal that has China
participating in the Galileo project - not reviving the now lost-to-Jupiter
probe, but taking part in Europe's major satellite-navigation program.
This agreement spurs partnerships on satellite navigation in a wide
range of sectors, notably science and technology, industrial
manufacturing, and service and market development.

Another example is last month's agreement between China and
Russia to plot a course together in future space exploration efforts.

No doubt that the successful flight of a piloted Shenzhou 5 would
catapult China into top-drawer status in terms of nations capable of
doing heady things in space.

The trek could trigger a number of actions said Roger Launius,
Chair of the Division of Space History at the Smithsonian Institution
(news - web sites)'s National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C.

"I am excited that there is a third nation that has made the investment
in human spaceflight and will soon join the U.S. and Russia in this
grand experiment," Launius said. "It is obvious that the Chinese are
seeking to demonstrate to the world their great power status through
this act. The prestige they will engender in this effort is something
that they have been seeking for several years," he said.

Launius said one follow-on prospect is for China to become a part of
the international partnership building the space station. "Perhaps
their energy will help jump start a return to the Moon for humanity. I'd
certainly like to think so," he said.